Theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations for a Negative Binomial process paradox     

M. Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(3):183-200

The idea of an over-threshold sampling is to retain all the events of a time-series exceeding a given threshold. The probabilistic analysis implies estimating two statistical models, one describing the occurrence of the events (date of the events), the other describing their magnitude (value of the local maximum). These two models are then combined to obtain the distribution of the annual maxima. A well-known result of a Poisson process is that waiting time, defined as the duration between two successive events exceeding the threshold, is exponentially distributed. The assertion that the waiting time of a Negative Binomial process is also exponentially distributed seems to be in obvious contradiction with the Poisson process properties. A theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations are presented to solve this apparent paradox.  相似文献   

Mass flows and river response in rapid uplifting regions – A case of lower Yarlung Tsangpo basin,southeast Tibet,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

《国际泥沙研究》2020,35(6):609-620

The fluvial geomorphology in tectonically active (particularly rapid uplift) regions often undergoes continuous change. The rapid uplift is coincident with high erosion rates; consequently, incised valleys are formed. Mass flows (for example, avalanches, landslides, and debris flows) in incised valleys can markedly influence fluvial processes and even reshape valley geomorphology. However, these processes and long-term evolution corresponding to mass flows require further clarification. Field campaigns were carried out in the region near the Yigong Tsangpo and Palong Tsangpo Rivers (hereafter the Yigong and Palong Rivers), the two largest tributaries of the lower Yarlung Tsangpo River, to examine the feedback between fluvial processes and mass flows. Remote sensing images from recent decades were used to compare the channel morphology before and after typical mass flows (particularly catastrophic ones). The morphology of the lower Yigong River has evidently been impacted by landslides, while that of the Palong River has mainly been shaped by glacial processes and debris flows. At present, the morphology of the latter consists of alternating sections of gorges and wide valleys, with a staircase-like longitudinal profile. The gorge sections exhibit single and deeply incised channels with a high-gradient channel bed and terraces. In contrast, the wide valley sections consist of lakes, braided or anabranching channels, gentle bed gradients, and thick alluvial deposits. Debris flows occur more frequently in gullies in the reaches of the gorge sections and rarely in gullies along the wide valley sections. The occurrence of mass flow events has resulted in an imbalance of the previous (quasi-)equilibrium in the river morphology; however, this has triggered negative feedback that is driving the transient river morphology to a new state of (quasi-)equilibrium.  相似文献   

Rotation and dilation deformation mechanisms for auxetic behaviour in the α-cristobalite tetrahedral framework structure     

A. Alderson  K. E. Evans 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2001,28(10):711-718

 Analytical expressions are derived for the Poisson's ratios associated with a three-dimensional network of regular, corner-sharing tetrahedra in which: (1) the tetrahedra are assumed to be rigid and free to rotate relative to each other; (2) the tetrahedra are assumed to maintain shape and orientation but are free to change size (dilate); (3) tetrahedral rotation and dilation are assumed to act concurrently. The structure has a primitive unit cell containing four tetrahedra and is analogous to the molecular structure of α-cristobalite. Strain-dependent variations in Poisson's ratio are also predicted by the models. For deformation due to tetrahedral rotation the network is found to exhibit negative Poisson's ratios in each of the three principal directions, with the magnitude of the Poisson's ratio being dependent on the angle of rotation of the tetrahedra. The behaviour of the Poisson's ratio is isotropic in the transverse plane, but anisotropic elsewhere. In the dilation model negative Poisson's ratios equal to −1 are observed for uniaxial loading in any of the principal directions, with the value being constant irrespective of tetrahedral size. The model for concurrent tetrahedral rotation and dilation allows positive as well as negative Poisson's ratios, with the values determined by the framework geometry and relative strengths of the two mechanisms. The concurrent model also offers a design route to materials and structures having ultrahigh Young's moduli. Received: 15 February 2000 / Accepted: 1 October 2000  相似文献   

ALow-order　Model　of　Two-dimensional　Fluid　Dynamics　on　the　Surface　of　a　Sphere     

Mozheng Wei 《大气科学进展》1996,13(1):67-90

ＡＬｏｗ－ｏｒｄｅｒＭｏｄｅｌｏｆＴｗｏ－ｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌＦｌｕｉｄＤｙｎａｍｉｃｓｏｎｔｈｅＳｕｒｆａｃｅｏｆａＳｐｈｅｒｅＭｏｚｈｅｎｇＷｅｉ（ＣＲＣｆｏｒＳｏｕｔｈｅｒｎＨｅｍｉｓｐｈｅｒｅＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ，ＣＳＩＲＯＤｉｖｉｓｉｏ...  相似文献   

水与流体饱和孔隙介质界面上非镜面反射声场的实验研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

诸国桢  朱喜福  郭宏智 《地球物理学报》2001,44(1):83-92

用光学法和发射-接收法研究了水与流体饱和孔隙介质界面上声波的非镜面反射声场．测量了入射角θ_i为16°－80°范围内的反射系数R，记录了θ_i在Rayleigh波临界角θ_c附近±4°范围内两束反射波的反射角、波束位移△、波形和频谱．实验发现：(1)在θ_c附近±4°范围内，观察到θ_i两束反射波A和B，其中波束B沿界面有波束位移△，实验测出△随θ_i增大而减小，并非在θ_i=θ_c时最大．(2)反射角等于θ_i的波束的频谱很接近于入射波的频谱，反射角等于θ_c的波束的频谱相对于入射波有频谱的负偏移．(3)波束A的相位与发射换能器直达波的相位一致，波束B的相位与波束A相反  相似文献   

山西夏县台热水井水氡异常特征与地震的关系初探     

范玉俊  黄春玲 《山西地震》2002,(4):24-27

为弄清山西夏县中心地震台水氡震前异常的原因 ,对山西夏县中心地震台热水井水氡 1984年以来的观测资料用概率论的数据处理方法进行了处理 ,以负异常的发震原理进行了分析 ,结果表明震前负异常的发震概率为 70 %。  相似文献   

关于火山岩型铀矿床成矿规律中一些问题的讨论   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

俞时清  邸瑞姞 《铀矿地质》1993,(2)

火山岩型铀矿常位于大的地质构造单元界线附近,特别是稳定区与活动区之间的过渡带上。矿区的基底不仅需有较高的成熟度而且是在火山岩形成前或长期处于隆起状态者。负向火山构造,上叠式或拗凸型上叠式火盆是铀矿田的有利构造形式。红盆对成矿的作用不是古气候方面的而是构造方面的。火山岩型铀矿成矿深度可以较大,而且在垂向上不只一个富集高峰。铀及其主要伴生组份不是来源于赋矿围岩,而是来自基底或更深处。  相似文献   

SEARCH FOR CORRELATIVITY OF LIGHTNING(STROKE)WITH ATMOSPHERIC STRATIFICATION FACTORS          下载免费PDF全文

Zhang Xixuan  Zhang Cuihua 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1991,5(2):252-252

In this paper the statistical analysis is carried out on the correlation between lightning strokes andatmospheric stratification factors.It is shown that the total number of strokes in lightning process is mainlydecided by environmental temperature at altitude with the residual instability of 5℃(T_r).The instabilityshould also affect the total number of strokc in lightning process.A forecasting equation of stroke in light-ning process has been deduced and two interesting preliminary conclusions have been obtained.  相似文献   

大兴安岭林区负地闪电荷源的反演     

武智君  郄秀书  王东方  宣越健  刘明远  王志超 《气象学报》2013,71(4):783-796

在中国东北大兴安岭林区进行了基于全球定位系统(GPS)时间同步的闪电地面电场变化多站观测.利用2010年7月14日一次过境雷暴多站同步的闪电电场变化资料,采用非线性最小二乘拟合法对雷暴成熟阶段的15次负地闪(包含57次回击和8次连续电流过程)中和的电荷源进行了拟合.大兴安岭林区负地闪单次回击中和的电荷量平均为1.0C(范围为0.1-5.0C),20%的继后回击中和电荷量大于首次回击,继后回击与首次回击中和电荷量的比为0.1-6.1,平均为0.8±1.0.单次连续电流中和的电荷量平均为3.8C(范围为0.4-7.3C),连续电流期间通道中的平均电流估计为25.3A(范围4.9-50.8A),一次负地闪中和的总电荷量平均为6.4C(范围为1.4-12.4C).负地闪回击和连续电流中和电荷源的高度分布与雷暴云的发展有关,对应的环境温度为-10--25℃.在雷暴成熟阶段前期,负地闪回击和连续电流中和电荷源距地面的高度从5.0km缓慢上升至10.5km;在雷暴成熟阶段后期,负地闪回击和连续电流中和电荷源距地面的平均高度从9.0km下降到6.0km,单次回击中和的电荷量也较前期减小约一个量级.与雷达回波的叠加显示,负地闪回击和连续电流中和的电荷源主要位于大于40dBz的强对流中心区,部分位于30-40dBz的强回波区边缘或较弱的回波区.  相似文献   

New magnetic field measurements of β Cephei stars and slowly pulsating B stars     

S. Hubrig  M. Briquet  P. De Cat  M. Schller  T. Morel  I. Ilyin 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2009,330(4):317-329

We present the results of the continuation of our magnetic survey with FORS 1 at the VLT of a sample of B‐type stars consisting of confirmed or candidate β Cephei stars and Slowly Pulsating B (hereafter SPB) stars, along with a small number of normal B‐type stars. A weak mean longitudinal magnetic field of the order of a few hundred Gauss was detected in three β Cephei stars and two stars suspected to be β Cephei stars, in five SPB stars and eight stars suspected to be SPB stars. Additionally, a longitudinal magnetic field at a level larger than 3σ has been diagnosed in two normal B‐type stars, the nitrogen‐rich early B‐type star HD 52089 and in the B5 IV star HD 153716. Roughly one third of β Cephei stars have detected magnetic fields: Out of 13 β Cephei stars studied to date with FORS 1, four stars possess weak magnetic fields, and out of the sample of six suspected β Cephei stars two show a weak magnetic field. The fraction of magnetic SPBs and candidate SPBs is found to be higher: Roughly half of the 34 SPB stars have been found to be magnetic and among the 16 candidate SPBs eight stars possess magnetic fields. In an attempt to understand why only a fraction of pulsating stars exhibit magnetic fields, we studied the position of magnetic and non‐magnetic pulsating stars in the H‐R diagram. We find that their domains in the H‐R diagram largely overlap, and no clear picture emerges as to the possible evolution of the magnetic field across the main sequence. It is possible that stronger fields tend to be found in stars with lower pulsating frequencies and smaller pulsating amplitudes. A somewhat similar trend is found if we consider a correlation between the field strength and the v sin i ‐values, i.e. stronger magnetic fields tend to be found in more slowly rotating stars (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献